Merk Investments: Jobless Claims

Jobless claims moved back across the critical 400K level for the second time in four weeks to increasing to 406K and the four-week moving average climbed to 382K. The continuing clams data, which is released with a one-week lag, arrived at 3.107mln, which is consistent with the 5.6% rate of unemployment week, expect to observe during July non-farm payrolls report.

After the seasonal inspired decline in the headline, the data is moving back towards trend, which we expect to settle into a range of 400-420K over the next several weeks. In addition, the continuing claims data should resume its steady upward trend when the market observes the data for the week ending 19 July next Thursday. These combined trend in these data are now consistent with traditional patterns seen in national economic recessions.

Joseph Brusuelas
Merk Investments
Chief Economist/VP Global Strategy

This report was prepared by Merk Investments LLC, and reflects the current opinion of the author.  It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable.  Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice.  This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any investment product, nor provide investment advice. Merk Investments does not own any of the stocks mentioned; this is not an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.