Merk Investments: Jobless Claims 365k

Jobless Claims To 365K

Initial claims fell 18K to 365K for the week ending 3 May and the four-week moving average increased to 367K. The previous week saw the series revised to 383K from 350K.  Continuing claims, which is released with a one-week lag, modestly eased to 3.20mln.  

The major narrative over the past several weeks has been the sustained move in the continuing claims that has breached the 3.0mln mark is commensurate with a higher rate of unemployment than the data currently implies. With the duration of unemployment on the rise and discouraged workers leaving the labor sector, the dip to 5.0% in the rate of unemployment is temporary. We expect that the unemployment rate will increase to 5.5% by the end of the year.

Joseph Brusuelas
Merk Investments
Chief Economist/VP Global Strategy

This report was prepared by Merk Investments LLC, and reflects the current opinion of the author.  It is based upon sources and data believed to be accurate and reliable.  Opinions and forward looking statements expressed are subject to change without notice.  This information does not constitute a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any investment product, nor provide investment advice. Merk Investments does not own any of the stocks mentioned; this is not an offer to buy or sell any security mentioned.